Venezuela: The Second Stage of Economic Stabilization 

https://misionverdad.com/venezuela/en-que-consiste-la-segunda-etapa-de-estabilizacion-economica

President Nicolás Maduro announced the “second phase of economic stabilization,” based on import substitution. The president asserted on October 13 that the government is preparing a second stabilization phase of the new economic model of the 13 Engines of the Bolivarian Economic Agenda, with the goal of achieving a major objective: “Full production and radical substitution at 100% in all sectors, and the financial and monetary strengthening of the country.”

Maduro explained that this new phase seeks to consolidate domestic productive capacity in response to external aggression. In his opinion, much of the “offensive of psychological warfare and military threats” has been aimed at damaging and paralyzing the Venezuelan economy. The president indicated that focusing the activities of economic drivers on import substitution would guarantee the continuity of economic activities, overcoming any inertia or paralysis.

ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND EXTERNAL PRESSURES

Recently, the Central Bank of Venezuela announced  that the Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter of 2025 increased 8.71% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

There have been 18 consecutive quarters in which the Venezuelan economy registered a higher level of economic activity. In the third quarter, Venezuela had 16.12% growth in oil activity and 6.12% growth in non-oil activity.

Regarding non-oil activities, the largest economic increases were: 16.40% in the Construction sector; 9.35% in Transportation and Storage; 8.98% in Manufacturing; 8.19% in Commerce; 7.08% in Mining; 6.78% in Accommodation and Food Services; 6.60% in Real Estate, Professional, Scientific, Technical, Administrative, and Support Activities; and 6.11% in Agriculture.

While oil contributes to growth, construction, manufacturing, mining, and agricultural activities generate strong internal linkages and strengthen value chains that make growth sustainable.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) new monthly report for October indicated that Venezuela surpassed the production threshold of 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd).

The Venezuelan economy is at a point where the reinvigoration of primary and secondary economic activities is becoming a key factor in order to maintain the development of the economic cycle.

The U.S. military presence in the Caribbean raises the chance of external aggression, which increases uncertainty and volatility, slowing investment. Furthermore, the United States has de facto established a maritime exclusion zone. Donald Trump himself has admitted that “no one goes fishing anymore” along the Caribbean coast. This situation should be understood as the physical implementation of a maritime blockade, affecting fishing, trade, and tourism activities in the waters of Venezuela’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

Another critical component of the Venezuelan economy right now is the devaluation of the bolivar against the US dollar, both in the reference exchange rate reflected by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and in various parallel exchange rates. Currently, unofficial rates are setting a differential of approximately 50% compared to the official exchange rate, which generates instability in pricing systems and complicates commercial activities for the population.

One of the factors driving this trend is the decline in the flow of foreign currency into the economy, driven by the intensification of economic stifling measures implemented by the Trump administration. Furthermore, the climate of uncertainty arising from threats of military aggression against Venezuela encourages stampede reactions that result in a thirst for foreign currency and speculation in unofficial foreign exchange activities.

COUNTERMEASURES AT ALL TIMES

The Venezuelan government rightly believes it is necessary to contain volatility, guarantee the supply of goods, and alleviate pressures on demand for US currency by strengthening domestic production, substituting imports, and increasing exports. The head of state refers to a new phase of stabilization, which is projected to include short-term and long-term actions.

The process of import substitution and export diversification has seen a surge this year. According to government data, non-oil exports in Venezuela showed significant growth , increasing by 87.66% between January and April 2025. This growth was also driven by sectors such as trade, which grew by 7.19%, and manufacturing, by 6.24%.

However, a significant acceleration of these activities in the medium and long term suggests additional efforts in various initiatives, such as the promotion of Special Economic Zones, where national and foreign public and private companies have various types of incentives to develop their activities.

But for President Maduro, the emphasis in this phase of the re-establishment is based on overcoming the real, concrete pressures posed by the US military deployment in the Caribbean. He explained that this new phase seeks to consolidate domestic productive capacity in response to external aggression. “We have a new, robust economic model,” he stated, referring to the structure that has allowed them to maintain supply and stability amid international pressure.

He stated that, according to the data, sectors such as the industrial and agricultural sectors have been growing thanks to a new economic model. The strategy, he stated, includes boosting domestic production in key sectors, progressively reducing dependence on imports, strengthening domestic distribution networks, and protecting the population’s purchasing power from external pressures.